Monday, December 16, 2013

How To Help Your Real Estate Broker Help You

Real estate offer. BusinessmanHow To Help Your Real Estate Agent Help You

In today’s post, we’ll look at what your real estate agent can and can’t do, what you should know about real estate agents, and how you can help your agent the most.  We’ll focus on if you’re selling a home this time, and create another one on what to do if you’re a buyer in the future.

Open Houses

You may think an open house is a great idea for getting people to look at your home and push for it. But the truth is that houses rarely sell that way. People like to have a private appointment so they can take their time looking around. The open houses help your agent because it builds up their contact list.

Don’t Use Plug-In Air Fresheners

The oily or waxy smell can be a turn-off to some people. Your best bet is to bake a load of cookies before people visit.

Last Second Lookers

If your agent says that someone wants to come over in 15 minutes, let them even if the house is a bit messy. It’s these type of last minute lookers that turn into impulsive buyers.

Don’t Be Offended By Low Balls

The fact that they made an offer means you may be able to negotiate them up. Let your real estate agent see what they can do.

Read the Contract Carefully

Very successful agents often pass their listing to junior agents and let them use the name. Before you sign a contract, make certain you know who will be working with you and what they will be doing.  By having proper expectations set, you’ll have a better experience.
Some agents put in additional fees ranging from $250 to $1,500 on top of their standard commission. It’s intended to cover their brokerage’s administrative costs.
All of these fees are negotiable.

Leave Furniture or Agree to Hire A Stager

Empty rooms don’t appear larger. In fact, they may appear smaller because the potential buyer has no sense of scale. And if the potential buyer sees furniture, they can imagine themselves living in the home more easily.
That being said, always keep your counter tops clear of clutter in the kitchen and bathrooms.  If you’re still living there, keep a special place where you can swipe everything into at the last second.
And don’t go overboard with decorating like wine glasses in a tray next to the bed, or fake pies on the counter. That could turn people off.

Mutually Listen

It’s important that you feel like your agent is listening to you and your concerns. It’s just as important that you listen to the agent. They should be the expert in home sales in your area, and may have additional knowledge that you don’t
Are you looking to buy a home before the end of this year?

Weekly Mortgage Commentary-December 16, 2013

This week has nine monthly or quarterly economic reports scheduled for release in addition to some key Fed events and a couple of Treasury auctions that could potentially affect mortgage rates. There is data set for release every day of the week, but the more important events will take or be posted the middle days. Still, with the majority of the days having multiple reports or events scheduled, there is a good chance of seeing plenty of movement in mortgage pricing this week.
 
The week opens with revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers at 8:30 AM ET Monday. This index is expected to show an upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It’s the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 2.8%, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%. The higher the reading, the better the news it is for the bond market.

Next up is November’s Industrial Production report mid-morning Monday. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts are expecting it to show a 0.4% increase in output, indicating modest manufacturing growth. A smaller than expected rise would be good news for bonds, while a stronger reading may result in slightly higher mortgage pricing.

November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. It is similar to last Friday’s Producer Price Index, except it tracks inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.1% in both the overall and core data readings. This data is one of the most watched inflation indexes, which is extremely important to long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds. Rising inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, making them less appealing to investors. That translates into falling bond prices and rising mortgage rates. Therefore, weak readings would be favorable for the bond market and mortgage shoppers.

Wednesday’s only economic report is Housing Starts, but we will get three months worth of it. Due to the government shutdown in October and problems collecting data last month, we will see results for September, October and November at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday. This data isn’t known to be highly influential on bonds or mortgage pricing. It does give us an indication of housing sector strength by tracking new home groundbreakings, so it is worth watching. All three months are expected to show increases, indicating strength in the new home portion of the housing sector. Slowing starts would be favorable for the bond market, although a wide variance is likely needed for the data to cause noticeable movement in the markets or mortgage rates.

Wednesday also has some significant FOMC events that can be highly influential on the financial and mortgage markets. The two-day FOMC meeting that began Tuesday will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but traders and analysts are anxious to get the Fed’s current economic forecasts and any word of a potential reduction in the Fed’s current bond buying program. Also worth noting is that the meeting is ending earlier than the traditional 2:15 PM because it is one of the meetings that will be followed by a press conference hosted by Fed Chairman Bernanke. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM, forecasts will be posted at 2:00 PM and the press conference will begin at 2:30 PM. It is fairly safe to assume that all of that will lead to afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates Wednesday.

Thursday has two monthly reports scheduled for 10:00 AM ET that we will be watching. The first is November’s Existing Home Sales figures from the National Association of Realtors, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is expected to show a decline in sales, indicating a slowing housing sector. A sizable decline in sales would be considered positive for bonds and mortgage rates because a softening housing market makes broader economic growth more difficult. But unless the actual readings vary greatly from forecasts, the results will probably have little or no impact on mortgage rates.

The Conference Board will also release their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November late Thursday morning. This release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.6% increase, meaning that it predicts economic growth over the next several months. This probably will not have much influence on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it shows a much stronger reading than the 0.6% rise that is forecasted. The weaker the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Friday has the remaining report with the final revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy expanded at a 3.6% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s final revision is expected to show no change from that level. A revision higher than the 3.6% rate that is expected would be considered bad news for bonds. But since this data is quite aged at this point and 4th quarter numbers will be posted next month, I don’t think it will have much of an impact on Friday’s mortgage rates.

In addition to this week’s economic data and Fed events, we also have Treasury auctions scheduled the first three days. The two that are most likely to influence mortgage rates are Wednesday’s 5-year and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales. If those sales are met with a strong demand, particularly Thursday’s auction, bond prices may rise enough to lead to improvements in mortgage rates shortly after the results are posted. They will be announced at 11:30 am Wednesday and 1:00 PM Thursday. But a lackluster investor demand may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates Wednesday and/or Thursday.

Overall, Wednesday is the key day of the week due to the afternoon Fed schedule. Tuesday’s data is also key to the bond market, but I think we will see the most volatility in the markets and mortgage rates Wednesday. Despite the GDP reading, I believe Friday is the best candidate for calmest day. Generally speaking, this is probably going to be a pretty active week for the bond and mortgage markets. It is likely that I will remain very cautious towards rates until the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield breaks above 2.90% (currently at 2.87%) for more than a few minutes to see if that truly is a strong resistance level or if it will continue to rise past. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as we are getting very close to that threshold.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Weekly Mortgage Commentary - December 9, 2013

This week has only two pieces of monthly economic data scheduled for release in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. Both of the economic releases are considered highly important though and the Treasury auctions are the more important set of auctions we regularly deal with, so despite the lack of a busy calendar we still should see noticeable movement in rates this week.

Monday has no relevant economic data scheduled, but does have several afternoon speaking engagements by Federal Reserve members. The topics of a couple of the speeches are related to the economy, so analysts and traders will be watching them for any surprises or tidbits that could alter forecasts of what future moves the Fed may make and when they will be made. Often these appearances are non-factors because they are related to banking rules or other boring topics. Since some of Monday’s look to be directly related to current and future economic conditions, we could see one or more of them affect afternoon trading and mortgage pricing.

There are Treasury auctions scheduled for several days this week, but the two we need to watch are the 10-year Note sale Wednesday and the 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Wednesday’s auction is the more important one and will likely have a bigger influence on mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we should see strength in the broader bond market and improvements to mortgage pricing during afternoon hours those days. On the other hand, a weak interest in the auctions could lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates.

November’s Retail Sales report is scheduled for release Thursday at 8:30 AM ET. This report will give us a key measurement of consumer spending by tracking sales at retail level establishments. This data is highly important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rapidly rising consumer spending raises the possibility of seeing solid economic growth. Since long-term securities such as mortgage bonds are usually more appealing to investors during weaker economic conditions, a large increase in retail sales will likely drive bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher Thursday. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.6% in November’s sales.

The second and final relevant report of the week will be November’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Friday morning. It measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving a more stable reading for analysts to consider. If Friday’s release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should respond well and mortgage rates could fall. Current forecasts are showing a 0.1% decline in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

Overall, I suspect Thursday will be the most active day of the week with the consumer spending data and 30-year Bond auction, but Friday’s data can also cause movement in rates. The calmest day will likely be Tuesday. It will probably be a calmer week than last week in terms of mortgage rate movement although we still should see rate changes multiple days. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 2.88% after touching 2.92% immediately after November’s stronger than forecasted Employment report was posted. I believe this week will help determine if that yield will break above 2.90% again or retreat towards 2.62%. Since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, the latter would be preferred by mortgage shoppers. Because the 2.92% on Friday was momentarily, I am hesitant to rely on it as a basis in switching to Float recommendations. Therefore, I am maintaining the conservative stance towards locking or floating an interest rate for the time being.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Weekly Mortgage Commentary-December 2, 2013

This week is packed with economic data with 10 pieces set for release, including two that are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates. November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the first, coming at 10:00 AM ET Monday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 56.4. A weaker reading than the expected 55.5 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed business executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes broader economic growth less likely.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for Tuesday, but Wednesday has three reports starting with October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is considered to be of low importance to mortgage rates. It is actually the week’s least important monthly report. It is expected to show a $40.5 billion trade deficit, which would be a decline from September. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect this data to affect mortgage pricing Wednesday.

Next on tap is two months’ worth of new home sales data from the Commerce Department. At 10:00 AM ET Wednesday we will get September’s and October’s New Home Sales reports that will give us an indication of housing sector strength. September’s data was delayed during the government shutdown, so we will get both reports this week. This data is not considered to be highly important because new home sales make up only a small portion of all home sold in the U.S. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in September’s sales but a decline in October’s sales. Ideally, bond traders prefer to see declining sales as it would point towards weakness in the housing sector. However, unless there is a significant surprise in the results, the data will probably have only a modest impact on Wednesday’s mortgage rates.

Also Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by Fed region. That information is relied upon heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any noticeable changes from the last update. More times than not though, this report will not influence the markets enough to cause intra-day changes to mortgage rates, but the potential to do so does exist.

The first of two revisions to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted early Thursday morning. It is expected to show an upward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 2.8% annual rate of growth. The GDP measures the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. Current forecasts call for a 3.0% rate of growth, meaning that there was a little more economic activity during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be bad news for mortgage rates because solid economic growth makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less appealing to investors. A modest increase shouldn’t be too detrimental to rates since it is expected. On the other hand, a sizable revision upward or downward could significantly influence the financial and mortgage markets.

October’s Factory Orders will be posted late Thursday morning. This report is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week, except this one includes manufacturing orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but it does carry enough importance to impact mortgage rates if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a 1.0% decline in new orders. The larger decline, the better the news for bond prices and mortgage rates because it would signal manufacturing sector weakness. If we do see a much larger drop in new orders, the bond market could thrive, improving mortgage rates Thursday morning.

The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department posts November’s Employment figures. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see, so its impact on the markets and mortgage rates is often significant. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most watched ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate to 7.2% while 185,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The income reading is forecasted to show an increase of 0.2%. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than October’s 7.3%, a smaller increase in payrolls (or a decline) and no change in the earnings reading. If we are fortunate enough to hit the trifecta with all three, we should see the stock markets fall, bond prices rise and mortgage rates move much lower Friday. However, stronger than expected readings would likely fuel a stock rally and bond sell-off that would lead to higher mortgage rates.

October’s Personal Income and Outlays data is scheduled for early Friday morning also. This data measures consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.3% and that spending increased 0.3%. Weaker than expected readings would mean consumers had less money to spend and were spending less than thought. That would be theoretically favorable news for bonds and mortgage pricing, although the Employment data will be the focus of Friday’s morning trading.

The final report of the week is the release of December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly if it shows a sizable miss from forecasts. Consumer sentiment or confidence is tracked because the more comfortable consumers are about their own financial situations, the more likely they are to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the economy, any related data is watched closely. Friday’s release is expected to show a reading of 75.4, which would be a small rise from last month’s final reading of 75.1. A large decline in confidence would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Friday to be the most active day of the week but we should see noticeable movement in rates Monday also. And in between those days there is plenty of data being posted that may move mortgage rates. The best candidate for calmest day is Tuesday with nothing in terms of relevant economic data set for release. With so much on tap this week, there is plenty of opportunity to see large swings in the major market indexes and mortgage rates. Accordingly, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.